Posted on May 19, 2025, by Niftynews
HAL Share Price is showing strong bullish potential as multiple top brokerages forecast the stock to breach the ₹6,000 level in the coming quarters. Following robust Q4 earnings and optimistic long-term guidance from Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL), analysts are increasingly confident in the PSU giant’s trajectory.
The stock has already surged by 23% in 2025 so far and closed at ₹5,115.50 on Friday, May 16, registering a gain of 5.15% for the day. Despite short-term challenges in revenue growth, the market sentiment around HAL remains extremely positive—driven by its strong order book, high-margin profile, and government backing for Make-in-India defence initiatives.
🔍 Why HAL Share Price Is Gaining Momentum
Despite a slight dip in net profits for Q4FY25, HAL’s results were better than expected, fueling the share price rally:
- Net profit fell 8% YoY to ₹3,958 crore, but exceeded estimates of ₹2,592 crore
- Revenue dropped 7% to ₹13,700 crore
- EBITDA fell 10% YoY to ₹5,292 crore
- Margins narrowed to 38.6%, still among the best in the sector
More importantly, analysts point to HAL’s ability to maintain EBITDA margins of 30–31% and a strong order pipeline as key reasons behind their bullish forecasts.
📊 Analyst Ratings: Most Are Bullish on HAL Share Price
Out of 20 analysts covering the stock:
- 17 have a “Buy” rating
- 2 recommend “Hold”
- Only 1 has issued a “Sell”
🔼 Price Targets from Leading Brokerages:
| Brokerage | Target Price (₹) |
|---|---|
| Antique | 6,545 |
| Jefferies | 6,475 |
| ICICI Securities | 6,150 |
| Nirmal Bang | 6,140 |
| JPMorgan | 6,105 |
| Nuvama | 6,000 |
Each of these institutions believes HAL Share Price is on a strong upward trend, supported by solid fundamentals and a bullish long-term outlook.
💡 Jefferies: “Margins Strong, Growth Conservative but Reassuring”
Global investment bank Jefferies maintains a “Buy” on HAL with an upgraded target of ₹6,475. The firm said HAL’s Q4 performance beat expectations by 4%, with a positive margin surprise of 765 basis points, hitting 38.7%.
Jefferies believes HAL’s sustained margins, backed by efficient cost optimization, will drive double-digit growth over the next 3–5 years. It also expects services and aircraft delivery businesses to expand, further boosting revenue.
The brokerage views HAL’s FY26 revenue guidance of 8–10% as conservative, with potential for upward revision later in the year.
📦 JPMorgan: Strong Order Pipeline Will Drive Long-Term Growth
JPMorgan is also bullish, giving HAL an “Overweight” rating and a ₹6,105 target. They highlighted the following positives from the recent earnings call:
- Expectation of ₹1 lakh crore in new manufacturing orders within 1–2 years
- Maintenance of a strong 31% EBITDA margin through FY26 and beyond
While JPMorgan acknowledges that FY26 growth guidance appears underwhelming, the firm sees this as a cautious management stance. Any upward revision could spark fresh momentum in HAL Share Price.
⚖️ Morgan Stanley Takes a More Balanced View
Morgan Stanley downgraded HAL to “Equal-weight” with a target of ₹5,092, citing concerns over valuation and revenue execution risks.
The stock currently trades at 35x FY27 estimated earnings, which is a 30% premium to its five-year average. The firm is waiting for either a better entry point or stronger delivery on HAL’s massive ₹1.85 lakh crore order book before turning bullish again.
🛡️ Strategic Role in India’s Defence: A Key Catalyst for HAL Share Price
HAL is central to India’s defence manufacturing ambitions, from Tejas fighter jets to helicopters and missile systems. With geopolitical tensions like India-Pakistan border flare-ups, domestic defence procurement is likely to see a boost. During recent tensions, PM Narendra Modi openly praised Made-in-India defence equipment, highlighting HAL’s strategic importance.
As India shifts from import dependence to self-reliance, HAL stands to benefit massively through:
- Long-term defence contracts
- Increased exports
- Government support under the “Make in India” policy
- Rising focus on indigenous aerospace tech
📈 Long-Term Outlook: Is HAL Share Price Headed for ₹6,500?
Given the high analyst confidence, sustained margin performance, and a ₹1.85 lakh crore order book, HAL Share Price is poised to remain on a bullish path. Conservative revenue guidance could be revised as execution picks up in H2FY26, offering further upside.
Key drivers to watch:
- Actual execution of new orders
- Revisions to FY26 growth guidance
- International collaborations or exports
- Further government policy support
📝 Final Thoughts: HAL Share Price Has Room to Fly Higher
HAL’s recent performance, margin stability, and strategic defence role paint a strong long-term picture. While some short-term volatility is possible, especially if revenue execution slows, the HAL Share Price is on track to test ₹6,000–₹6,500 levels, as forecasted by most analysts.
For long-term investors focused on India’s aerospace and defence growth story, HAL remains a top pick in the PSU and manufacturing space.
