Posted on May 9, 2025, by Niftynews
ideaForge share price came into focus on May 9, 2025, after the company posted dismal Q4FY25 results, reporting a net loss of ₹26 crore and an 80% year-on-year revenue drop. Despite the weak earnings, the stock jumped 6.6% to settle at ₹381.70, likely on expectations of a turnaround fueled by international partnerships and long-term potential.
The drone manufacturing company, which once captured investors’ imagination with its explosive IPO in 2023, has since been on a downward trajectory—down 72% from its peak of ₹1,344. With the latest earnings showing strain, investors are asking: Can ideaForge recover from here?
💼 Q4FY25 at a Glance: ideaForge Financial Pain
For the March quarter (Q4FY25), ideaForge’s financial performance disappointed across key metrics:
| Metric | Q4FY24 | Q4FY25 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹102 crore | ₹20 crore | -80% |
| EBITDA | ₹20 crore | -₹17 crore | – |
| EBITDA Margin | 20% | -86% | – |
| Net Profit | ₹10 crore | -₹26 crore | – |
The company’s order book also fell to ₹13.6 crore at the end of Q4FY25, down from ₹20.7 crore in Q3, making it the lowest in four quarters. Gross margin and PAT margin also deteriorated significantly year-over-year.
📉 Why Did Revenue Plunge 80%?
ideaForge attributed the steep revenue decline to multiple external and internal factors:
🗳️ 1. General Elections Impact
The company highlighted a substantial slowdown in India’s drone industry during the first half of FY25 due to the general elections. This led to procurement delays and stalled conversions of government orders.
📦 2. Delayed Order Timelines
Government and defense spending was slower than expected, pushing revenue recognition to future quarters.
⚙️ 3. Product Mix Shift
Gross margins also took a hit, dropping from 49.9% in FY24 to 33% in FY25, as the product mix delivered in FY25 skewed towards lower-margin offerings.
🔄 Yearly Performance (FY25): A Story of Decline
For the full fiscal year, the numbers continued to paint a grim picture:
- Revenue: Down 48.6% YoY
- EBITDA Margin: Fell from 27.4% in FY24 to -19.6% in FY25
- PAT Margin: Dropped from 14.4% to -38.6%
Despite having an initial order pipeline, execution delays meant that ideaForge couldn’t convert opportunities into sales.
🔍 Management Commentary: Glimmers of Hope?
While the Q4FY25 results were discouraging, ideaForge management pointed to some early signs of recovery and long-term growth initiatives:
📈 L1 Pipeline Over ₹400 Crore
Although no major order conversions occurred in Q4, the management said it has a robust L1 opportunity pipeline worth over ₹400 crore, indicating potential near-term revenue triggers.
🌍 International Expansion
ideaForge is now focusing more on international markets. Management sees “increasing momentum” in global partnerships and export opportunities.
🤝 Strategic Partnership with Resonia
The company recently partnered with Resonia (Sterlite Group) to deploy drones and robotics in the energy sector, which could diversify its revenue stream beyond government contracts.
📉 From IPO Darling to Downtrend – ideaForge Share Price History
ideaForge went public in July 2023 at an IPO price of ₹672 per share. On listing day, it doubled to ₹1,344, marking one of the strongest tech stock debuts in recent years.
However, since then, the ideaForge share price has dropped nearly 72% from its high, underperforming the broader market amid slowing execution and industry headwinds.
📉 Year-to-Date Performance:
- Current Price: ₹381.70
- YTD Decline: Nearly 40%
📊 Can ideaForge Share Price Recover?
While the near-term outlook remains challenging, a few factors could aid a recovery:
✅ Reasons for Optimism:
- Large pipeline of government and international orders
- Drone industry is still in its early growth phase in India
- Increasing focus on civilian applications (energy, surveillance, delivery)
- Strong brand and early-mover advantage in drone tech
⚠️ Key Risks:
- Continued procurement delays and regulatory bottlenecks
- High dependency on government defense orders
- Weak gross and EBITDA margins
- Lack of order book visibility
🧠 Expert Take: Hold, Watch or Exit?
For current investors, it might be prudent to wait and watch. ideaForge’s fundamentals are weak in the short term, but long-term demand for drone technology in defense, agriculture, and infrastructure remains intact.
Traders should be cautious unless there’s a clear breakout above key resistance levels, while long-term investors may want to accumulate only if order visibility improves and execution resumes.
📌 Final Word: ideaForge at a Crossroads
The ideaForge share price has suffered a steep correction after initial euphoria. With weak Q4 results and order delays weighing down performance, short-term uncertainty remains high. However, if the company delivers on its large pipeline and executes global expansion effectively, a turnaround is possible in the medium to long term.
Investors should monitor upcoming quarters closely to see if management can turn pipeline momentum into tangible revenue recovery.
