Indian Stock Market Update: MidCap and SmallCap Indices Trend Analysis for 2025
The Indian stock market kicked off 2025 on a disappointing note. The benchmark indices, BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty, have slipped by up to 1.8% in January so far. The broader market has experienced a sharper decline, with the Nifty MidCap 150 index dropping 6.5% and the Nifty SmallCap 250 index plunging 7.4%.
As of Monday noon, the MidCap index was down by 2.5%, while the SmallCap index fell by 2.2%, compared to a 0.9% drop in the Nifty 50 benchmark.
Key Losers in MidCap and SmallCap Stocks
- MidCap Major Losers:
Stocks like Kalyan Jewellers, Paytm, Godrej Industries, CRISIL, and Godrej Properties saw significant losses of 14-18% each. Other notable losers included Apollo Tyres, Tata Elxsi, PolicyBazaar, Suzlon Energy, Jindal Stainless, MRF, and Aurobindo Pharma, which declined by over 10% each. - SmallCap Major Losers:
KEC International, Aditya Birla Real Estate, and Piramal Pharma were hit hardest, with losses exceeding 17%. Other significant losers included Inox Wind, Angel One, PCBL Chemical, Sobha, PVR Inox, IFCI, Finolex Industries, and CESC, each down by over 12%.
Technical Outlook: Nifty MidCap 150
- Current Level: 19,765
- Downside Risk: 12%
- Support Levbels: 19,350; 18,800; 18,500; 18,315
- Resistance Levels: 20,144; 20,234; 20,640; 20,940
The Nifty MidCap 150 index is trading below its 50-Weekly Moving Average (WMA) for the first time since March 2023, with the 50-WMA at 20,234 acting as immediate resistance.
Additionally, the index remains below the lower Bollinger Band on the daily scale, indicating a bearish trend as long as it stays below 20,144.
Key Insights:
- On the downside, the index is likely to test support around its 50-Monthly Moving Average (MMA) at 18,315. A breach of this level could lead to a drop toward the super trend line at 17,530, a key support since November 2020.
- Resistance is expected in the 20,640 – 20,940 range during any pullback rally.
Technical Outlook: Nifty SmallCap 250
- Currentb Level: 16,425
- Downside Risk: 15.5%
- Support Levels: 15,123; 13,880
- Resistance Levels: 16,700; 17,115; 17,530
The Nifty SmallCap 250 index is also trading below the lower Bollinger Band, signaling continued bearish momentum unless it climbs above 16,700.
Key Insights:
- A weekly close below 16,700 would end the 22-month-long uptrend, as seen on the weekly chart.
- Over time, the index could seek support near its 20-Monthly Moving Average (MMA) at 15,123, or drop further toward the super trend line at 13,880. This translates to a downside risk of 15.5%.
- Pullback resistance is anticipated at 17,115 and 17,530.
Summary
Both MidCap and SmallCap indices are facing bearish trends with significant downside risks. Investors should closely monitor support and resistance levels, particularly the 50-WMA, 20-MMA, and super trend lines. Pullback rallies, if any, are expected to face stiff resistance at higher levels, providing opportunities for cautious trading.
By keeping a close eye on technical indicators and broader market trends, traders and investors can navigate these challenging market conditions effectively.
