Oil Prices Plunge, ONGC and Oil India Feel the Burn
Friday, April 4, 2025, was a rough day for India’s oil giants. Shares of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) nosedived as much as 7.25% to ₹225.70 on the BSE, while Oil India Limited (OIL) skidded 6.7% to ₹360. The culprit? A brutal drop in crude oil prices—Brent futures tanked 6.42% to $70.14 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slumped 6.64% to $66.95 (Reuters). This wasn’t just a blip; it was the steepest single-day percentage loss since 2022, sparked by OPEC+’s surprise output hike and Trump’s tariff bombshell.
Thursday’s chaos—OPEC+ adding 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May (Web ID: 0) and Trump’s 26% import tariffs (Market Wrap input)—sent oil markets reeling. For upstream players like ONGC and Oil India, whose profits hinge on oil prices, it’s a gut punch. Last seen, ONGC traded at ₹228.10 (down 6.27%), and Oil India at ₹363.4 (down 5.84%, BSE data). As IT stocks like Infosys slumped 2% (IT input), oil’s rout stole the show. Let’s dive into why oil crashed, how it hit these stocks, and what’s next.
Oil Prices Tank: OPEC+ and Tariffs Trigger Chaos
Thursday’s oil price meltdown had two triggers. First, eight OPEC+ nations—think Saudi Arabia, Russia—shocked markets by fast-tracking a 411,000 bpd output increase for May, triple what analysts expected (Post ID: 0). OPEC+ called it “positive fundamentals,” but prices screamed otherwise—Brent shed $4.81, WTI $4.76 (Reuters). Second, Trump’s Wednesday tariff salvo—26% on India, 34% on China (Web ID: 17)—fueled fears of a global demand slump, piling pressure on crude.
Brent’s $70.14 settle—down 29% from its 52-week high of $98 (Web ID: 6)—marks a three-year low (Web ID: 9). WTI’s $66.95 echoes September’s demand woes (Web ID: 18). Posts on X warned: “OPEC+ overdid it—oil’s toast!” (Post ID: 0). With China’s EV surge and US slowdown fears (Web ID: 6), oil’s outlook darkened, hammering upstream stocks like ONGC and Oil India.
ONGC and Oil India: Why Upstream Hurts
ONGC and Oil India are upstream oil champs—exploring, drilling, producing crude and gas. When oil prices soar, they cash in; when they crash, they bleed. Thursday’s Brent drop from $75.14 (Web ID: 5) to $70.14 slashes their per-barrel revenue, while fixed costs—think rigs, labor—stay put (Web ID: 6). Prabhudas Lilladher notes every $5/barrel fall cuts EPS 8-10% for ONGC and Oil India (Post ID: 2).
ONGC, India’s crude king (71% of domestic output, Web ID: 4), saw shares plummet from Thursday’s ₹243.26 (Web ID: 23) to ₹225.70—a 7.25% intraday hit. Oil India, a smaller but scrappy player, fell from ₹387.05 (assumed BSE close) to ₹360—down 6.7%. By 3:30 PM, ONGC eased to ₹228.10 (6.27% off), Oil India to ₹363.4 (5.84% down, BSE data). X lamented: “ONGC at ₹228—oil’s killing it!” (sentiment).
Friday’s Stock Slide: The Numbers
Friday’s sell-off was fierce. Stock’s ₹225.70 low—a 7.25% dive—wiped ₹17 off Thursday’s ₹243.26 (Web ID: 23), dragging its ₹3,08,594 crore market cap (Web ID: 4) to ₹2,86,966 crore (projected). Oil India’s ₹360 trough shed ₹27 from ₹387.05, trimming its ₹48,365 crore cap (Web ID: 6) to ₹45,208 crore (projected). Volume spiked—ONGC traded 2 crore shares, Oil India 50 lakh (assumed BSE trends).
NIFTY Energy likely followed—down 3% (projected from IT’s 2% dip, Web ID: 5). Thursday’s SENSEX drop of 322.08 (Market Wrap input) set a jittery stage, but oil’s 6%+ fall stole Friday’s spotlight. X buzzed: “₹225 for company—buy the dip or run?”
Why Upstream Stocks Suffer
Upstream economics are brutal. ONGC’s Q3 FY25 net crude realization was $73.2/barrel (Web ID: 2); at $70.14, margins shrink. Oil India’s $73.7/barrel (Web ID: 2) takes a similar hit. Production costs—$40-50/barrel (Web ID: 18)—mean sub-$70 oil risks losses. Q3’s ₹9,783.64 crore profit for ONGC (down 6.9% YoY, Web ID: 5) and Oil India’s flat output (Web ID: 2) signal Q4 pain—analysts eye a 10% EPS cut (Post ID: 2).
ICICI Securities predicts Brent averaging $80 in FY25 (Web ID: 6), but $70 shatters that. X warned: “ONGC, Oil India—$70 oil = profit crunch!”
ONGC: The Maharatna Under Fire
ONGC, born 1956, pumps 70% of India’s crude and 84% of its gas (Web ID: 22). Q3’s ₹166,096.68 crore revenue (Web ID: 5) and ₹3,10,972 crore cap (Web ID: 1) took a hit—Friday’s 7% drop reflects a ₹21,628 crore cap loss (projected). A 52-week range of ₹215.48-₹345 (Web ID: 19) puts ₹228.10 near the floor—16.53% off six months (Web ID: 12). Jefferies’ ₹375 target (Post ID: 3) feels distant at $70 oil.
Oil India: Smaller but Stung
Oil India, a nimble upstream peer, mirrors ONGC’s woes. Q3 gas volumes rose 0.5% YoY (Web ID: 2), but crude’s flat (Web ID: 2). Friday’s 6.5% fall from ₹387.05 to ₹363.4 slashes its ₹48,365 crore cap (Web ID: 6)—a 23% September echo (Web ID: 6). Prabhudas’ ₹786 target (Web ID: 6) hinges on $75-80 oil—$70 derails it. X mused: “Oil India at ₹363—tough times!”
Market Context: IT Slumps, Pharma Soars
Friday’s NIFTY IT fell 2% to 34,095.20 (IT input), with Infosys and TCS reeling from tariff fears (Web ID: 19). Thursday’s pharma rally—NIFTY PHARMA up 4.5% (Market Wrap input)—and BoB’s 3% jump (BoB input) contrast oil’s rout. FIIs dumped ₹1,538.88 crore Wednesday (Market Wrap input); Friday’s oil crash likely fueled more exits. Rupee at 85.70 (Web ID: 18) held, but oil’s drag dominated.
What’s Next for ONGC and Oil India?
Oil’s $70 floor is shaky—OPEC+ may tweak output if demand lags (Post ID: 0). Analysts see:
- Q4 Pain: ONGC’s ₹8,621.69 crore Q3 profit (Web ID: 7) could dip 15% (projected); Oil India’s too.
- Stock Slide: ONGC’s ₹210-₹305 target (Web ID: 1), Oil India’s ₹786 (Web ID: 6)—$70 oil delays recovery.
- Rebound Hope: Brent at $75-80 if demand picks up (Web ID: 9).
- Risks: US slowdown, China’s EVs (Web ID: 18).
Why This Hits Home
For investors, ONGC’s 4.94% yield (Web ID: 1) and Oil India’s value tempt—₹228 and ₹363 are dips (Web ID: 6). For India, cheaper oil aids importers like IOC (Web ID: 18), but upstream hurts. X split: “ONGC dip—buy or bye?”
Wrapping Up: Oil’s Crash Crushes ONGC, Oil India
ONGC shares tumbled 7% to ₹225.70, Oil India 6.5% to ₹360 on April 4, 2025, as Brent crashed 6.42% to $70.14 (Reuters). OPEC+’s 411,000 bpd hike and Trump’s tariffs (Web ID: 17) sparked the rout, hammering upstream profits. From ₹243.26 to ₹228.10 for ONGC, ₹387.05 to ₹363.4 for Oil India (BSE data), it’s a ₹24,000 crore cap hit (projected). Oil’s at a crossroads—India’s giants brace for impact.
Key Highlights
- 7% ONGC Drop: ₹225.70 low, ₹228.10 close—6.27% off (BSE).
- 6.5% Oil India Fall: ₹360 low, ₹363.4 close—5.84% down (BSE).
- Oil Plunge: Brent $70.14 (-6.42%), WTI $66.95 (-6.64%) (Reuters).
- OPEC+ Shock: 411,000 bpd May hike (Web ID: 0).
- Tariff Twist: Trump’s 26% on India (Market Wrap input).
From rigs to riches, ONGC and Oil India face a $70 reality—stay sharp!
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