Q4 results, developments on US-China tariff war top factors to drive stock markets this week

A Stormy Week Looms for Dalal Street

Get ready for a rollercoaster, traders—India’s stock markets are set to swing wildly when they reopen Tuesday, April 15, 2025, after Monday’s Ambedkar Jayanti holiday. The big drivers? Q4 earnings from giants like Infosys and Wipro, plus Donald Trump’s tariff tug-of-war with China, which has markets on edge. Friday’s surge—SENSEX up 1,310 points to 75,157.26, NIFTY50 hitting 22,828.55—leaned on a 90-day US tariff pause, but last week’s dip (SENSEX -0.27%, NIFTY -0.33%) shows nerves. With foreign investors pulling ₹31,575 crore in April, Tuesday’s action could push NIFTY past 23,000—or back to 22,600.

Last week dazzled: Cipla soared 5% to ₹1,555 on tariff relief, RVNL jumped 3.2% to ₹344.45 on a railway win, and Tata Steel leapt 6% to ₹131.90. Now, with Trump easing tech tariffs and China hinting at talks, what’s next? Let’s unpack the earnings buzz, tariff twists, and data deluge shaping this four-day trading week.

Ambedkar Jayanti: A Day Off, A Moment to Reflect

Monday, April 14, shuts down BSE and NSE for Ambedkar Jayanti, honoring Dr. B.R. Ambedkar, born in 1891 and the genius behind India’s Constitution. Dubbed Equality Day, it’s a time for parades and pride, pausing equity, derivatives, and securities lending trades. The Multi Commodity Exchange halts gold and crude futures too. Come Tuesday, 9:15 AM IST, NIFTY’s 22,828.55 and SENSEX’s 75,157.26 face a tariff-charged test—will the rally hold?

Tariff Chaos: Trump’s Tech Break, China’s Retort

Trump’s trade moves are a market minefield. Over the weekend, he exempted smartphones, computers, and electronics from hefty China tariffs—now 125%, up from 104%—giving tech firms like Apple, down 7.3% last week, a breather. China called it a “small step” to fix one-sided US duties, leaving room for talks. This follows April 2’s shock: a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports, with India’s 26% levy paused till July 9 (China faces 145%).

China’s Friday salvo—125% tariffs on US goods—keeps tensions high, but negotiation whispers could calm things. India’s 90-day break, keeping a 10% tariff, lifted pharma (Cipla +5%) and metals. Tuesday’s global cues—flat US futures, Asia’s 1% Friday gain, Brent crude at $63.83—set the tone. July’s tariff cliff looms, but for now, relief rules.

Q4 Earnings: Infosys, Wipro Under the Lens

Earnings season heats up. Infosys and Wipro, IT linchpins, unveil Q4 FY25 results this week, with their outlooks critical after TCS’s 0.48% dip to ₹3,231.15 on a 1.68% profit drop. IT’s struggling—down 25% year-to-date as US clients cut spending amid tariff fears. Infosys, at ₹1,496 Friday, could swing to ₹1,550 or slip to ₹1,450; Wipro’s ₹480 eyes ₹490. HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank’s Q4 numbers also drop, testing banking’s post-RBI 6% repo cut strength.

CEOs’ words matter—will Infosys flag trade risks or Wipro signal recovery, riding India’s 6% FY26 growth? Investors crave direction after TCS’s mixed $12.2 billion deal win. Banking’s resilience—HDFC up 2.5% Friday—could offset IT’s wobble if loan growth shines.

Data Deluge: Inflation and Global Signals

Numbers will nudge sentiment. India’s March 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) land Tuesday, likely pegging CPI at 4% (RBI’s target) and WPI at 2%, up from February’s 3.85% and 1.5%. Tariff-driven spikes—say, in clothing—might rattle bulls. Globally, Tuesday’s US CPI (3.2% expected), Friday’s UK GDP, and Thursday’s China CPI steer markets. US inflation fears hit 4% in March surveys, stoking swings.

The rupee’s 86.18 (-0.78% last week) and Brent crude’s $63.83 (+1.01% Friday) add spice. A softer rupee or oil jump could dent IT and Reliance, down 2.16% Monday. India VIX, up 46% last week to 14.5, screams caution.

FIIs and Market Pulse

Foreign investors yanked ₹31,575 crore from equities in April, flipping March’s ₹30,927 crore inflow (net -₹3,973 crore). Tariffs—US’s 145% on China, 26% on India—sparked the flight, hammering IT and oil. Friday’s $15 million pharma inflow—sector share up to 6.9% from 6.8%—shows selective bets. Domestic investors pumped ₹21,955 crore, lifting NIFTY. Tuesday’s FII moves could drive NIFTY to 23,000 or drag it to 22,600 if sales persist.

Friday’s winners—RVNL (+3.2%), Tata Steel (+6%), Cipla (+5%)—loved tariff relief. But last week’s losses (SENSEX -207.43, NIFTY -75.9) warn of fragility. Global markets swung too—S&P 500’s best day since 2008, then a stumble—echoing India’s chop.

Tariff Relief: Tech’s Gain, India’s Chance

Trump’s tech exemptions eased Apple’s pain, but India’s IT firms—Infosys, Wipro—gain indirectly, serving US tech’s $8 billion demand. Non-exempt Indian exports face July’s 26% risk, yet India’s 12% export-to-GDP ratio softens blows. Could India grab China’s US market share? Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal’s “balanced” trade talks suggest a shot, building on India’s $8 billion pharma export edge.

Tuesday’s Game Plan: Key Triggers

Markets restart with NIFTY at 22,828.55 and SENSEX at 75,157.26. Watch:

• Q4 Earnings: Infosys, Wipro’s Q4—growth or tariff gloom?
• Data: India’s CPI, WPI; US CPI, China’s trade signals.
• FIIs: ₹31,575 crore April exit—reversal or rout?
• Global: US futures, Asia’s vibe, crude’s $63.83.

NIFTY support at 22,600 holds if tariffs bite; 23,000 beckons if banks rally. SENSEX’s 75,157.26 could test 75,500 Tuesday.

Why This Matters

For traders, Cipla’s ₹1,555 or RVNL’s ₹344.45 tempt, but Infosys’s Q4 could sway IT bets. For India, earnings and tariffs test 7% GDP hopes—pharma’s $50 billion exports and IT’s 8% share hang in balance. For markets, it’s a tariff tightrope—RBI’s 6% repo and 4% inflation give lift, but FIIs hold the strings.

Wrapping Up: Markets Eye Q4 Earnings, Tariffs

India’s markets, closed April 14 for Ambedkar Jayanti, brace for volatility from April 15. Q4 results—Infosys, Wipro, HDFC Bank—meet US-China tariff drama, with Trump’s tech exemptions and China’s 125% duties stirring the pot. Friday’s SENSEX (+1,310 to 75,157.26) and NIFTY (+429 to 22,828.55) rode a 90-day tariff pause, but April’s ₹31,575 crore FII exit looms large. CPI, WPI, and global data add fuel. From RVNL’s railway wins to Cipla’s pharma pop, Tuesday tests grit—23,000 or a tariff tumble?

Key Highlights

• Holiday: BSE, NSE shut April 14 for Ambedkar Jayanti.
• Q4 Earnings: Infosys, Wipro Q4 results this week.
• Tariffs: US spares tech, China hits 125%; India’s 26% paused till July 9.
• FIIs: ₹31,575 crore April outflow.
• Data: CPI, WPI, US-China metrics due.

From tariffs to trades, India’s markets are set to rumble—stay sharp!